downside risks

Russian translation: нет, не так (см. ниже)

10:06 Dec 30, 2014
English to Russian translations [PRO]
Bus/Financial - Economics / More Pain, No Gain for Greece
English term or phrase: downside risks
It is also disturbing that the troika is so much in denial about the macroeconomic impacts of their pro-cyclical economic policies. When the Fund or the troika reports on downside risks or worsethan-expected outcomes, it is attributed to the failure of the Greek government to institute some structural reforms.

Согласно определению,
Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference.
Т.е. в данном контексте риски, связанные с недополучением доходов, ожидаемых от программы реформ. Так ли это?
Sterk
Ukraine
Local time: 22:16
Russian translation:нет, не так (см. ниже)
Explanation:
...

Определение, приведенное Вами, применимо в контексте финансовом (фондовый рынок, инвест. деят. и т. д.), здесь же микро-контект абзаца -- экономика.

IMF, например, под downside risks имеет в виду:

But several downside risks could derail the expected recovery or weigh on growth, especially over the medium term: domestic political instability, including from adjustment fatigue; slippages in reform implementation, as vested interests push back; the failure to deal effectively with bank balance sheet vulnerabilities; longer than expected deflation that will be a further drag on private balance sheets; and external factors such as lower euro area growth, monetary tightening that reduces global risk appetite, and a potential escalation of the crisis in Ukraine that could hit Greece through the trade channel.

16. Public debt dynamics remain broadly unchanged (Annex I). After peaking at about 174 percent of GDP this year, debt is expected to decline to 128 percent in 2020 and 117 percent of GDP in 2022, before additional contingent relief measures from Greece’s European partners. This rapid decline is predicated on primary surpluses of over 4 percent of GDP being achieved and sustained for several years as well as relatively high nominal GDP growth. Sustainability remains subject to notable downside risks, in particular, to fiscal slippages, delayed structural reforms that slow competitiveness gains, and higher than expected deflation.

19. Risks to the 2014 fiscal outlook are broadly balanced. Upside risks include higherthan-projected tax buoyancy as the economy recovers. The track record of under-executing the budget also points to the possibility of over-performance. Downside risks include adverse court rulings on past wage cuts and property levies, the uncertain impact of new tax policy initiatives, notably those introduced in the income tax code, potential shortfalls in property taxes (the new regime became effective only earlier this year), and health sector spending. The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to take compensating measures if downside risks materialize.

(ПСБ) IMF Greece June 2014.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf


Также:

Downside
The negative movement in the price of a security, sector or market. Downside can also refer to economic conditions and it describes periods when an economy has either stopped growing or is shrinking. Movement to the downside is often expressed in terms of risk, as in there is a downside risk in a particular country's economy; or, stock ABC has downside risk because of changing consumer trends. Downside risk can be evaluated by fundamental and technical factors.

Downside risk is sometimes expressed in terms of an estimation of a security or economy's potential to experience negative movement. A stock analyst, for example, might guess how big a price drop he or she expects stock ABC will endure because of certain events. Economists can estimate the downside risk a country's economy is likely to suffer due to current conditions, such as unemployment and GDP growth.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/downside.asp


Основываясь на вышеприведенном, предложу следующие варианты:

риски негативных экономических последствий
риски отрицательных (негативных) изменений в экономике
риски ухудшения экономики
риски ухудшения экономической ситуации

Selected response from:

Dmitri Lyutenko
Russian Federation
Local time: 22:16
Grading comment
Благодарю!
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
4 +4нет, не так (см. ниже)
Dmitri Lyutenko
2понижательные риски
Yevgen C


  

Answers


7 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 2/5Answerer confidence 2/5
понижательные риски


Explanation:
Термин достаточно часто встречается, хотя не уверен, насколько он является корректным

http://blog.forex4you.org/usa-ponigatelnye-riski/
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/tdr2012_ru.pdf

Yevgen C
Ukraine
Local time: 22:16
Works in field
Native speaker of: Russian
PRO pts in category: 8
Login to enter a peer comment (or grade)

2 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5 peer agreement (net): +4
нет, не так (см. ниже)


Explanation:
...

Определение, приведенное Вами, применимо в контексте финансовом (фондовый рынок, инвест. деят. и т. д.), здесь же микро-контект абзаца -- экономика.

IMF, например, под downside risks имеет в виду:

But several downside risks could derail the expected recovery or weigh on growth, especially over the medium term: domestic political instability, including from adjustment fatigue; slippages in reform implementation, as vested interests push back; the failure to deal effectively with bank balance sheet vulnerabilities; longer than expected deflation that will be a further drag on private balance sheets; and external factors such as lower euro area growth, monetary tightening that reduces global risk appetite, and a potential escalation of the crisis in Ukraine that could hit Greece through the trade channel.

16. Public debt dynamics remain broadly unchanged (Annex I). After peaking at about 174 percent of GDP this year, debt is expected to decline to 128 percent in 2020 and 117 percent of GDP in 2022, before additional contingent relief measures from Greece’s European partners. This rapid decline is predicated on primary surpluses of over 4 percent of GDP being achieved and sustained for several years as well as relatively high nominal GDP growth. Sustainability remains subject to notable downside risks, in particular, to fiscal slippages, delayed structural reforms that slow competitiveness gains, and higher than expected deflation.

19. Risks to the 2014 fiscal outlook are broadly balanced. Upside risks include higherthan-projected tax buoyancy as the economy recovers. The track record of under-executing the budget also points to the possibility of over-performance. Downside risks include adverse court rulings on past wage cuts and property levies, the uncertain impact of new tax policy initiatives, notably those introduced in the income tax code, potential shortfalls in property taxes (the new regime became effective only earlier this year), and health sector spending. The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to take compensating measures if downside risks materialize.

(ПСБ) IMF Greece June 2014.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2014/cr14151.pdf


Также:

Downside
The negative movement in the price of a security, sector or market. Downside can also refer to economic conditions and it describes periods when an economy has either stopped growing or is shrinking. Movement to the downside is often expressed in terms of risk, as in there is a downside risk in a particular country's economy; or, stock ABC has downside risk because of changing consumer trends. Downside risk can be evaluated by fundamental and technical factors.

Downside risk is sometimes expressed in terms of an estimation of a security or economy's potential to experience negative movement. A stock analyst, for example, might guess how big a price drop he or she expects stock ABC will endure because of certain events. Economists can estimate the downside risk a country's economy is likely to suffer due to current conditions, such as unemployment and GDP growth.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/downside.asp


Основываясь на вышеприведенном, предложу следующие варианты:

риски негативных экономических последствий
риски отрицательных (негативных) изменений в экономике
риски ухудшения экономики
риски ухудшения экономической ситуации



Dmitri Lyutenko
Russian Federation
Local time: 22:16
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in RussianRussian
PRO pts in category: 320
Grading comment
Благодарю!

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  Tatiana Grehan
12 mins
  -> Спасибо, Татьяна. С Новым годом!

agree  Elena Bocharova-Booth
39 mins
  -> Спасибо, Елена. С Новым годом!

agree  Maria Krasn
1 hr
  -> Спасибо, Мария! С Новым годом!

agree  Anastasiya Tarapyhina
6 days
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