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single-point trend

English translation: a trend that can be measured from a single point (in time)

09:13 Oct 11, 2012
English language (monolingual) [PRO]
Social Sciences - Social Science, Sociology, Ethics, etc.
English term or phrase: single-point trend
First, the aging ofthe baby boom is not a single-point trend. Placing
the baby boom at age forty is not like placing the DowJones average
at 10,000. In the above analysis, we've assumed that the baby boomers
were born in 1960 and therefore that they turned forty in the year 2000.
But millions of baby boomers were younger and older in 2000-as young
as twenty-seven and as old as fifty-four. Thac's a big spread.
ionutzavram
Romania
Local time: 08:23
Selected answer:a trend that can be measured from a single point (in time)
Explanation:
This means that the trend cannot be measured from one point in time to another since it is about a generation of people who are naturally born at different points in time.

Selected response from:

PoveyTrans (X)
Local time: 06:23
Grading comment
Selected automatically based on peer agreement.
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



SUMMARY OF ALL EXPLANATIONS PROVIDED
3 +3a trend that can be measured from a single point (in time)
PoveyTrans (X)
4a trend with only one start date or point
Yvonne Gallagher
4not arbitrary
DLyons


  

Answers


16 mins   confidence: Answerer confidence 3/5Answerer confidence 3/5 peer agreement (net): +3
a trend that can be measured from a single point (in time)


Explanation:
This means that the trend cannot be measured from one point in time to another since it is about a generation of people who are naturally born at different points in time.



PoveyTrans (X)
Local time: 06:23
Native speaker of: English
PRO pts in category: 12
Grading comment
Selected automatically based on peer agreement.

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  B D Finch: Also, the various start-points would be liable to have differing trend lines, introducing the complexity of defining how much of the overall trend is shared by and distinct to the cohorts for (e.g.) each birth year..
1 hr
  -> Thanks
agree  Tina Vonhof (X)
5 hrs
  -> Thanks
neutral  DLyons: It seems to be more a question of setting the baseline.
15 hrs
agree  Sanchia Holder
6 days
  -> Thanks
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2 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
a trend with only one start date or point


Explanation:
another way of putting it.

Analysts would avoid having statistics based on a line form A to B as a single-point start and end point.

Here, as Simon says, there is a large range of start points for this study of baby-boomers as some are only 27 years old in 2000 (born in 1973) while others are 54 (in 2,000) so were born in 1946.

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Note added at 2 hrs (2012-10-11 11:20:22 GMT)
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A bit about trend lines from this site

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=225112

"...A trend cannot be derived from two points. Two consecutive days of cold weather don’t constitute global (or even local) cooling. A trend requires a statistically significant number of observations, ... Most traditional TA (Trend analysis) fails by this rule because it allows for the connection of two points into a line, called a trend line with the inference that the connection of two data points defines a support or resistance area...

Because you need a statistically significant number of data points to infer a trend, you can’t draw a line between the start and end points and call it a trend. If single data points contain error, a single data point is neither an accurate nor sufficient measure of the variable’s... trend . Trend lines should be drawn with a statistical technique in order to be statistically valid..."

Yvonne Gallagher
Ireland
Local time: 06:23
Works in field
Native speaker of: Native in EnglishEnglish
PRO pts in category: 24

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
neutral  B D Finch: Not a question of what analysts would avoid, but of the characteristics of the data. It all depends what is being measured, but e.g. whether people born in year X are still alive in year Y is easier to assess than are weather patterns.
17 mins
  -> agree data required will depend on what is being measured, but was just giving another definition for the term posted
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15 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
not a single-point trend
not arbitrary


Explanation:
The base Dow is an arbitrary figure, it could equally have been set at 1 or 100,000. So this seems the simplest and most natural way of expressing the idea.

DLyons
Ireland
Local time: 06:23
Native speaker of: English
PRO pts in category: 4
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