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French to English translations [Non-PRO] Bus/Financial - Business/Commerce (general) / market analysis
French term or phrase:S’il n’y a pas d’annonces fortes
Taken from a market analysis article:
Les entreprises sortiront de cette crise plus endettées et avec des marges détériorées alors que traditionnellement, les récessions leur permettent de repartir plus assainies. S’il n’y a pas d’annonces fortes, après la relance de 2020, la politique fiscale sera récessive en 2021.
I'm struggling to understand the meaning of this phrase, in particular the source/nature of the "annonces" in question.
The business of ANY government is to lead, take decisions, especially in extreme situations, not to passively "wait for signs" and then grandly announce that "signs are there!!!".
I don't see the slightest ambiguity as to what is supposed to be "announced": strong decisive measures to put the economy back on track.
Also there is "une preuve par l'absurde":
SI il n’y a pas d’annonces fortes, après la relance de 2020, ALORS la politique fiscale sera récessive en 2021. = IF (some condition is not satisfied) THEN the fiscal policy in 2021 will be adapted to a recession.
A pandemic is hardly part of a "normal economic cycle" and the ensuing recession is not part of any "normal cycle" => no point in waiting for a spontaneous recovery, so the "condition that has to be satisfied" is TAKING ACTION.
ph-b (X)
France
Philippa,
13:06 Jun 1, 2020
I agree that as you say, “ 'annonces fortes' is often used as a short-cut for "major things that are announced’ ". If that’s the case, the whole sentence should be sthg like S’il n’y a pas d’annonces fortes [qui rétablissent/améliorent l’économie] (or words to that effect), la politique fiscale sera recessive…” The media! Pff...
I definitely agree with SafeTex that "measures" or "action" would be preferential to "big announcements" in this context.
And I also agree with ph-b: in terms of fiscal policy, I see it as referring to the expansionary stage we're currently in likely ending and switching to a contractionary phase with reduced government spending - which is to be expected in 2021 as the current level of spending is naturally unsustainable. I don't think the "annonces fortes" will therefore impact policy per se but rather they will reveal/detail the government's policy.
As I understand it, the writer expects this contractionary phase of fiscal policy in 2021 unless something major and contradictory is announced by the government (i.e. further expansionary policy - which would be surprising given debt levels).
I get your interpretation, but I don't think the two parts of the sentence are linked that way: as I see it, the "annonces fortes" (measures/actions announced) will have an impact on the policy and whether it is likely to be "récessive" (= austerity) or not. So essentially, the actions announced will decide if fiscal austerity will reign. And "annonces fortes" is often used as a short-cut for "major things that are announced", see for instance: https://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/violences-conjugale...
It's really a subtle point to explain when we can use "big announcement" and when we can't but in this context, lots of people have reservations and I agree with them.
It should be translated as "measures", "action" etc.
ph-b (X)
France
09:36 Jun 1, 2020
I understand this as: "unless policy-makers (government?) clearly/categorically state the contrary, la politique fiscale sera récessive...". To me, the "announcing" is about the budgetary policy itself, more precisely, whether the chosen policy will be récessive or not, and not about measures (etc.). "clear announcement"? "categorically state"?
I am not sure you can use "signs" but, in the end, the so-called announcements would probably concern the signs emerging from the marketplace anyway. "big announcements" sounds unnatural.
If, once the economy starts to get going again in 2020, nothing of major importance is announced (special measures ?? new business, breakthroughs ???), tax policies in 2021......
See my comment on Ormiston's proposed answer... I believe it refers more to what actions are decided rather than to "signs" from the market place / businesses / stock exchange, ...
peer agreement (net): -2