Mar 6, 2012 15:24
12 yrs ago
3 viewers *
French term

conjonction d’aléas

French to English Tech/Engineering Mathematics & Statistics extreme value statistics
This appears to refer to a specific calculation approach, but so far I have been unable to identify the English equivalent. Here are a few sentences containing this phrase:

"Un calcul probabiliste (conjonction d’aléas de différentes variables d’étude, composition d’aléas de différentes sous-populations de variables, composition statistique régionale)."

"Un calcul probabiliste dans le cas d’une conjonction d’aléas de différentes variables d’étude, composition d’aléas de différentes sous-populations de variables, composition statistique régionale."

"Dans le cas de figure, courant dans la pratique des études des valeurs extrêmes, où des corrélations entre différentes variables d’études existent, on pourra établir un modèle statistique pour décrire ces dépendances. Ce modèle permettra de collecter plus d’informations à condition d’être capable de modéliser la dépendance des variables. Cette approche est aussi connue sous le nom de conjonction d’aléas. Des exemples concrets de conjonctions d’aléas sont par exemple, l’occurrence de fortes vagues lors d’une marée haute ou l’occurrence de deux crues concomitantes à la confluence de deux rivières."

Discussion

chris collister Mar 6, 2012:
The text makes it clear that the author is discussing extreme events - the probability of the occurrence of such events is a branch of statistics all on its own. Some outliers can be dealt with using normal statistics, but the "perfect storm" is a combination, or conjunction, of two or more improbable events, so "alea" here means an unusual or improbable event such as a storm surge or very large wave. See page 4 of http://www.usc.edu/dept/create/assets/002/50856.pdf
kashew Mar 6, 2012:
@ PG You would get a stack of variables that way ;-)
(conjonction d’aléas de différentes variables d’étude, composition d’aléas de différentes sous-populations de variables, ...)
philgoddard Mar 6, 2012:
Aléa could be "random variable". Or "conjonction d'aléas" could be "conjunction of conditionals".

Proposed translations

5 hrs
Selected

joint probability densities/distributions

Frankly, any translation using a form of the word 'conjoin' strikes me as a perverse effort to make a familiar subject seem unfamiliar in English.

I would be tempted to recast the text to talk about random variables rather than random events (aléa or 'hazards'). Models of wave height at high tide or the high water mark at the confluence of two streams are going to depend on the joint probability distribution of the several random variables involved.
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4 KudoZ points awarded for this answer. Comment: "Thanks very much to all. I believe "joint probabilities" is the correct term as suggested by rkillings."
15 mins

conjoined hazards

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Example sentence:

The fundamental challenge for hazard mapping consists in capturing the conjoint action of coupled hazard processes like those involving floods, levee failures and wood transport. On the base of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique the set of sectoral

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16 mins

composition of hazards

It seems to be the sort of stuff that occurs in conditional hazard models.

It also feels like a fairly general approach rather than a specific methodology. More background might help.
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23 mins

conjunction of events

Aléas in this case being random chance, or the random nature of how things can sometimes pair up and sometimes don't, and in stats they are described by probabilities of event conditional on other events, also called joint probability and a number of other things as well.

Check the first few google results for "conjunction of events" and see if the context matches what you're looking at. I'm pretty sure it's exactly the same thing.

In the sentence: "conjonction d’aléas de différentes variables d’étude" I'd maybe say something like "the combined occurrence of different variables in the study".

First though, follow a few Google links and make sure the math looks the same as what you're working on.
Peer comment(s):

neutral chris collister : maybe, but your "variables" are quite specific, low probability events, ie "aléas"
1 hr
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3 hrs

combined contingencies

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/.../pdf/jeabehav00026-0063.pdf
"by M Egli - 1989
Controlling variables operating during combined contingencies may be disrupted by the drug, and latent variables that were not apparent during baseline con- ..."

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3 hrs

conjuntion of contingencies

EN (from Mac OSX dictionary)

contingencies = a future event or circumstance that is possible but cannot be predicted with certainty.

conjunction = an instance of two or more events or things occurring at the same point in time or space

FR (from Wikipedia)

conjunction = Union de deux choses

aléa = Probabilité qu’un phénomène accidentel produise en un point donné des effets donnés, au cours d’une période déterminée

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Note added at 3 hrs (2012-03-06 18:52:38 GMT)
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conjunction of contingencies BTW not conjuntion (typing error)
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15 hrs

extrapolation

a contingency suggestion which springs to mind from reading the text!
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